Thursday, March 12, 2009

All bubbles burst

Excerpt from Thomas Friedman's The Great disruption.

...We have created a system for growth that depended on our building more and more stores to sell more and more stuff made in more and more factories in China, powered by more and more coal that would cause more and more climate change but earn China more and more dollars to buy more and more U.S. T-bills so America would have more and more money to build more and more stores and sell more and more stuff that would employ more and more Chinese ...

..."But it has to collapse, unless adults stand up and say, 'This is a Ponzi scheme. We have not generated real wealth, and we are destroying a livable climate ...' Real wealth is something you can pass on in a way that others can enjoy."...

bbqchickenwings thinks that Singapore is a big Ponzi scheme too.

There is also a nice article about Singapore about the myth of the role of PAP in Singapore's miraculous economic growth over the last 40 years. Read Part I and Part II. While the post try to discredit the PAP's role in our economic growth, bbqchickenwings is more interested in the stagnation that will occur in the near future, as Paul Krugman is quoted. 

Even without going through the formal exercise of growth accounting, these numbers should make it obvious that Singapore’s growth has been based largely on one-time changes in behavior that cannot be repeated. Over the past generation the percentage of people employed has almost doubled; it cannot double again. A half-educated work force has been replaced by one in which the bulk of workers has high school diplomas; it is unlikely that a generation from now most Singaporeans will have Ph.D’s

The government is running out of ideas and resorting to builiding 2 casinos to continue improving the GDP numbers every year. bbqchickenwings thinks Singapore has taken a step back during the last 10 years. Singapore was a more prosperous and happier society when Goh Chok Tong was Prime Minister. He promised us a Swiss standard of living. We were inching towards 乌托邦for a while and now we are slipping back again. The innovation is drying up, low-value manufacturing is moving to cheaper developing countries and before you know it, the Singapore economy will fall from a cliff. 

And no, its not due to the economic crisis now. Even without the crisis, bbqchickenwings thinks the standard of living in Singapore has declined over the last decade. Or maybe we took too much things for granted, what are wants have now become needs? The middle class does not have any rise in income,  they have to work harder and longer to maintain their lifestyle. Many are living from pay cheque to pay cheque. The bottom 20% is definitely worse off than 10 years ago. The income inequality is growing bigger.  A growing segment of the population needs social aid but do not know where to get help. Despite all the reports that the government is spending more money on poorer people, the aid is notoriously difficult to apply and get. You have to really humuliate yourself and show how poor you really are before they give u a pittance. 

To end off, visit this blog which wrote a poem about the sad life of Singaporeans. Excerpts: 

Once upon a time,
in nineteen sixty-nine.
HDB were not only subsidized,
but standard of living also very nice.
One spouse working, all can survive,
children are children all running around so nice.

Fast forward 40 years, it is the dreaded two thousand nine,
HDB flats had all became smaller in size.
Now termed "market subsidized,
their prices are not so kind.
Cost of living had grown so high,
now both spouses have to work nine to nine.


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