Europe's financial crisis

In Singapore, there seems to be less financial news about Europe than US. Most stuff recently is about the 'nationalization' of Citigroup and whether the government should fully nationalize it. Many bloggers (here and here as example) talk about GIC's converting of preferred stocks in Citigroup into common stocks and perhaps the impending doom of the investments. It seems like our national reserves are just shrinking day by day. More detailed analysis are provided by Lucky Tan. 

While all the storm seems to be brewing in the US, I will just like to make aware that there is a bigger problem in Europe. 

Banks in US are too big to fail. Banks in Europe are too big to save. The video below talks about how the crisis is in some sense bigger in Europe than in US. Good luck to the ECB to try and solve the crisis. Eastern Europe is going down. Western Europe may follow soon.

Excerpts from an article in Telegraph: Failure to save East Europe will lead to world-wide meltdown

In Poland, 60pc of mortgages are in Swiss francs. The zloty has just halved against the franc. Hungary, the Balkans, the Baltics, and Ukraine are all suffering variants of this story. As an act of collective folly – by lenders and borrowers – it matches America's sub-prime debacle. There is a crucial difference, however. European banks are on the hook for both. US banks are not.

Whether it takes months, or just weeks, the world is going to discover that Europe's financial system is sunk, and that there is no EU Federal Reserve yet ready to act as a lender of last resort or to flood the markets with emergency stimulus.

If one spark jumps across the eurozone line, we will have global systemic crisis within days. Are the firemen ready?

The answer is no.

Fish with a transparent head?

Macropinna microstoma. A fish with a transparent head, found somewhere in the deep sea. Is this for real?

Doomsayer

The more I look at it, the more I think the heart attack has not started for the global economy. Enjoy while you can. Is there anywhere to run and hide? The crisis will soon spread from America to Europe and Middle East(It has already started actually). Then Asia will get infected. It will be a vicious cycle until everyone is in dispair and we have a emergence of a New world economy model. Is this the end of capitalism? 

Who is everyone pinning their hope on to save the world? What can Obama do with his country in great decline, every other big corporation is asking for help every now and then? The European Union is not much better off, internal squabblings and the demise of Eastern European economies will more than occupy the EU. Russia and the Middle East can't do anything while oil prices are so low. How about India, only be hopeful if you think everyone can be like the Slumdog Millionaire. Japan has yet to recover from the previous recessions. China? They can't even solve their own domestic problems and you expect them to save the world? At the moment, it is more likely that we have a few more Icelands and Zimbabwes than.. (Is there anywhere that is unaffected by the crisis, some remote Pacific Island or upcoming African economy?)

bbqchickenwings hate to say it but... Is this gonna be worse than the Great Depression? No astute leader will admit this for this will lead to fear-mongering but is it playing on some of their minds?

The world is going to collapse. Help help, the sky is falling!

Can Poly students finally be the equal of JC students?

Update

Lower fares are coming 1st April. But as expected the poly students did not get what they are clamouring for. No equal to JC and ITE students. I hope Bernard (organizer of the petition) live to fight another day. 

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The Public Transport Council (PTC) is going to decide on new fares soon, as reported today. Hopefully there will be reduction in fares in light of the worsening economic conditions. More interestingly to look out for is whether polytechnic students will finally get what they deserve: same bus and train fares and concessions as JC students. 

The topic of whether Polytechnic students should enjoy the same concessions as Junior College students has been revisited many times. Over the years, it has been a ritual for someone to raise the concern in the forums of newspapers and every time the answer given by SMRT and SBS is always the same, i.e. Any concession given to the students will cause additional burden to commuters paying the full fare as they are effectively subsidizing the existing concessions. Its such a templated standard answer that bbqchickenwings can memorize it. I think some people can even reproduce the excuse given by the transport companies word-for-word. 

Recently, a group championing the cause is finally making some headway. The student activist group actually managed to meet representatives from PTC, TransitLink, SMRT and SBS. We will know soon whether the students are successful in convincing the representatives regarding the concerns or whether its just a left-ear-in, right-ear-out thing. 

Students are not the only ones supporting the cause. bbqchickenwings has previously quietly supported and now officially endorse via this blog (added the logo on the right column of the blog) the petition for Fairer Transport Fares for Polytechnic/Tertiary students. Even their teachers are getting into the act, writing to the forums. Article from Today, 18 February.

Letter from Chen Khin Wee 

Academic Associate, Republic Polytechnic 

I FOUND Transport Minister Raymond Lim’s remark in “Households spend less in 2008” (Feb 13), that “some polytechnic students are better off than others”, rather mystifying. Does this fact not apply to junior college (JC) students as well? Is he saying that all polytechnic students are well off and all JC students needy and therefore need the student concession more than their polytechnic counterparts?

I teach at a polytechnic and I can say for sure that my students are not rolling in money. I estimate that at least half of the students in my classes have to work part-time after school and during weekends to make ends meet. When I join them for meals I can see how carefully some of them choose the food they buy to conserve their limited pocket money.

While I am very proud of their self-reliance and financial independence, I am sure this extra-curricular activity alsoaffects their school work. 

There are about 20 JCs in Singapore but only five polytechnics. Unlike JC students, who have a greater chance of enrolling in a school near their home, the average polytechnic student has to travel some distance to attend classes.

Some of my students travel an average of three hours a day, often taking a complex “combination” of bus, MRT, and walking — students proudly refer to this as their B-M-W — just to get to school and home. This adds up to considerable travelling time and expenses.

Before writing this, I checked with some of my students to see how many benefited from the “targeted assistance” that the minister referred to. They looked back at me blankly and asked “What’s that?”

If the minister’s argument holds, then concession for JC students should be removed as well, and the real needy ones identified and given assistance. Many polytechnic students could use reduced rates.

Pretty cool huh. BMW. bbqchickenwings previously never knew he had been using a BMW for the last 20+ years of his life. (Is this a generation gap thing? Gosh, bbqchickenwings is out of touch) The writer made poly students sound so rich. Their schoolwork is slack enough for them to go out and work part time and they all have BMWs. Look at JC students, every day need to mug and become the elite of the elite, 人中之龙. Where can the JC students find the time to do part-time? So they need concessions even more eh?

So will the polytechinic students finally get some concessions?

The answer is NO. In Singapore you do not go up to a statutory board or government-linked company, tell them you want some changes to be made and expect them to follow suit. If the PTC and transport companies follow suit, its a lose-lose-lose situation for them. They lose the extra revenue from the poly students, they lose their standing on a higher platform by seemingly succumbing to an activist group and most importantly, they (i.e. including the government) will look like they lose the authority over the citizenry. 

Potential hell will break lose. The government will be worried that this will set a precedent for people to have petitions and activist causes of all kinds. More students may start petitions. (Historically, students always leads revolutions as they have too much time on their hands. Adults are too busy working and trying to feed their families, don't you agree?) The organizers of the petitions will be seen as heroes, like a certain Chee Soon Juan. The government has enough trouble with one CSJ. They do not need many more CSJ-wannabes asking people to sign petitions of all kinds. 

Petitions cannot be seen as a force for change in the government system. That is why bbqchickenwings is skeptical that polytechnic students will get what they want this time round, especially as the petition group had just met men from the PTC and transport companies. 

So what can be done. The petition group has already done their part. They have been heard. Now is the time to loosen the noose. Let the petition lose some steam and if the transport operators think it is justifiable, they will eventually give concessions to poly students. 

bbqchickenwings will be more than glad to eat his words and stuff chicken wings into his mouth if proven otherwise the next few days. 

Blogger Stabbed in Beijing

My condolence to Mr. Xu Lai, a famous Chinese blogger, who was stabbed while giving a public reading in a bookshop in Beijing. Mr Xu Lai is popular for satirical writings about government policies and the likes.

bbqchickenwings does not condonce violence of any form (unless its a frag shootout in Combat Arms, a FPS online game). There is no place for harming people anywhere and the perpetuator has to be punished heavily in accordance with Chinese laws.

Lessons to be learnt

• It is good to hide under a pseudonym, even a weird one like bbqchickenwings. Get a nice looking avatar. You never know who don't like your writings and have intentions of making their feelings known via violent methods given the openess of the Internet.
• Don't give public appearances. Don't be a hero especially when your writings are not favoured by the government or other people.
• Hire bodyguards for loan if you really need to make public appearances. Now, where is my Lara Croft?
• Give your user id and password to someone close. They can make an announcement on your blog to tell everyone you got hurt/kidnapped/arrested and you need some urgent blood donation/ransom fee/public demonstration to get you released. 

The above only applies if you are some big-time bloggers hitting 5000 views a day or more. bbqchickenwings is happy to remain small and be able to go buy some chicken wings without wearing a Kevlar bullet-proof vest.

Ramblings after overdosage of chicken wings

Today I wrote a travel guide in Singapore for my prof, who has one day to do shopping there. I finished it quickly in 1 hour. Then I realised something. It is much longer and more detailed than any report I sent him before. 

I have surpassed all my previous works with one hour of writing. Talk about efficiency. 

I was thinking of asking him to buy some local delights for my colleagues here. They didn't like the durian cakes I bought, luckily I had some other stuff to compensate. I want to get them something else this time, but I cant think of any that is easy to find in the supermarkets or malls and can withstand flights totalling 16 hours. Anyone has ideas?

10 preparations to a successful nursing home industry in JB

Khaw Boon Wan's proposal to build nursing homes in Malaysia made him the hottest minister in town, many Singaporeans are repulsive by the idea judging by the vigorous posting and commenting in various blogs. bbqchickenwings also feels it hard to accept staying in a foreign land after spending a lifetime in the little red dot. bbqchickenwings thinks Minister Khaw can get more Singaporeans to accept this eventuality by doing the following. Minister Khaw, please consider the following suggestions. 

1. Replace the Jobs Credit Scheme with a Sell Ship-your-parents Scheme (SYPS). Children who volunteer to ship their parents away gets a one time fee of $3000, this only applies to the lower income households with monthly income below $1500. This RRS is a win-win situation for both the government and the people. We can save on the subsidy for healthcare costs to low-income households, and at the same time give lower-income groups some financial help. 
   
2. Introduce another Relocation Assistance Plan(RAP). Elderly folks, above 55 or certified unfit to work, can volunteer to move out of the country into JB and get a one-time payment of $500 and a subsequent $250 per month. This is another win-win since it is a cheaper scheme than the $330 Public Assistance, and yet the elderly feels richer with more spending power. 
   
3. Allow withdrawal of CPF for nursing home residents. For those elderly who like to spend more money, they can withdraw their CPF which is otherwise untouchable for them. They can remain as Singaporeans and yet withdraw their CPF. But of course we cannot let the elderly anyhow use the money, its their hard-earned savings. bbqchickenwings havent thought of a way to transfer the money from the left to the right pocket, so that Mr Khaw don't feel the pinch. Readers, please contribute.  
4. Kopi-Money Rebate Scheme. (KPRS) Hi Mr Khaw, sorry that the measures up till now all talk about money. It is a trickle-down effect from the government's obsession with making money. In KPRS, Singaporeans can apply for a full rebate of Kopi-Money given when dealing with corrupted immigration officials and policeman from the other side of the Causeway. Of couse, issues such as how to prove the amount of kopi-money given has to be ironed out. 
5. Speaking of the causeway, it is too congested for people to want to go visit their parents frequently. We need a new bridge to ease congestion. This bridge will only be for people who intend to go to the nursing homes. Drivers will have to provide evidence they did reach the nursing homes by signing in and out the homes. They can go wherever they want but must return on the same day. To provide further incentive, the 3/4 tank rule for cars can be abolished for this bridge. 
6. Launch a huge PR offensive. Get international superstars like Jackie Chan to visit the nursing homes and talk about all the great things to do inside. Better still, ask him to commit to stay in the home when he retires. People may jump at the chance to stay with stars like Jackie, boasting: I am staying under the same roof with Jackie Chan and practising kung fu with him everyday. 
7. Request Mediacorp to produce a serial drama on life in JB from the early 1900s to the 2000s. It must include the big casts like Qi Yuwu, Fann Wong and the 7 princesses to ensure high viewer ratings. The drama can be modeled after the Little Nyonya. People may feel less repulsive if the nursing home is in Malacca since they can enjoy the Peranakan culture and all the goody food like Rembah Udang. This is all due to the good effort of Little Nyonya. But the problem is that children will have to travel too far to visit the parents. Commision Mediacorp to produce another drama on JB with the focus on delightful JB food. The most important reason why Singaporeans can accept a nursing home in JB will be because of better food there. 
8. Launch a 'Speak Bahasa Melayu' Campaign. Singaporeans are worried of moving to the nursing home since we don't know the national language in Malaysia. Have a 5 minute segment after the daily news broadcast where a pretty lady will teach everyone a little Malay everyday. The peasants will feel calmer when they know they can understand their landlords. 
9. Control the news we are getting on mainstream media about Johor, actually maybe even Malaysia as a whole. It is not pleasant hearing for Singaporeans to know that they have to stay in Malaysia when they are old when we get news on the same day such as SBS bus driver getting slashed in JB. Even though security is not very safe there, people can be made to feel safer by not hearing and seeing anything at all. 
10. How about the entertainment? We need a mini integrated-resort. The old folks need a way to spend their time and what better than gambling? Its' in the genes (refer to my previous posting). Oh, don't forget building the Singapore Pools outlet. 

There you have it Mr Khaw. It hurts to know that Singaporeans have to move to nursing homes away from our beloved island but you can make it much less painful. You don't have to thank me, just make sure I have my chicken wings every other meal during my stay there.